TRYING to guestimate the next move Fenway Sports Group will make over the position of Liverpool Football Club manager Brendan Rodgers is as tricky as determining which numbers will make you a millionaire on the next Lotto draw.
Yes, and appropriately enough, it may all come down to the numbers.
No, not the six goals that the Reds shipped on Sunday in one of the most embarrassing, calamitous performances in living memory. As bad as that capitulation at Stoke City was - and yes, it was bad - it wouldn't ultimately determine the manager's fate.
There's every chance that decision has already been taken by the FSG hierarchy and the Northern Irishman will, in perhaps a matter of hours, learn whether he still has a future at Anfield.
In their history dealing with managers, FSG have shown both tolerance when things aren't going so well as well as being fearless if they feel a change in the managerial hotseat is required.
The recent history of their two big sports teams - Liverpool FC and the Boston Red Sox - provides the evidence for this.
When FSG took over the reins at Liverpool in the autumn of 2010, Roy Hodgson was already the Reds manager. He was not their appointed man, Hodgson having been in the post since July 1 of that turbulent year.
But a series of awful performances culminating in a dreadful display at Blackburn Rovers in January 2011 led to Hodgson being relieved of his duties. FSG had shown to Liverpool supporters that they were listening to their concerns and were unafraid of making the biggest of changes at a football club.
There was plenty of clamour from supporters to have club legend Kenny Dalglish restored to the dugout. Whether FSG truly wanted Dalglish in the job is perhaps open to argument, but there was no doubt that the majority of fans had been appeased.
And over the next 14 months, Dalglish manfully helped to steady a ship that was listing badly. A first piece of silverware in six years was achieved when the Carling Cup was won in March, 2012, and the team also reached the FA Cup Final only to narrowly miss out to Chelsea.
But it was clear by the time the end of the season was reached, FSG were looking to install their own man at Anfield.
Just 11 days after the Wembley loss to Chelsea, Dalglish was gone and barely two weeks later, FSG announced his successor - Rodgers.
The former boss of Watford, Reading and Swansea City was yet to celebrate his 40th birthday but FSG's faith in him to lead their plan to bring success and silverware back to Anfield was total.
So, FSG have had 'their man' in the job for a total of 155 games in all competitions. The club under Rodgers has been unbeaten in 115 of those contests, winning 80 of them. That's double the amount of losses he has overseen - 40.
Across the Atlantic, the pattern of managerial moves at the Boston Red Sox does have echoes of what's been happening at Anfield.
FSG took control of the Massachusetts ballclub early in 2002. The team, with a fanatical fanbase stretching well outside the State's borders, had not won the sport's coveted World Series crown in more than eight decades.
One of the new owners' first moves in the Spring Training of 2002 was to send packing manager Joe Kerrigan who had presided over a difficult end to the 2001 season when the team missed the playoffs.
In Kerrigan's place, FSG installed Grady Little.
It was a move that almost, but not quite, brought glory to Fenway Park again.
In 2002, the Red Sox enjoyed a brilliant year winning 93 games - usually enough to earn a place in the post-season playoffs. Sadly for Boston, they finished a distant second to the New York Yankees and missed the party.
A year later, they did make the playoffs but in an infamous clash with the Yankees where the fate of the American League pennant was on the line and a place in the World Series, the Red Sox came up short.
Little's tactics came into sharp focus when a decision not to take out tiring pitcher Pedro Martinez with Boston holding a 5-2 lead late in the contest backfired with the worst possible outcome. New York tied the game at 5-5 and in the second extra inning, a home run from Aaron Boone won it for the team in pinstripes.
The heartbreaking loss to their deadliest rivals only strengthened FSG's resolve, and despite Little's fine numbers across two seasons - he oversaw 188 victories - the owners acted once more and the manager was gone. And rapidly too.
It was seen as a ruthless decision by some commentators, but given the widespread anger directed by Boston's fans who laid the blame for the crucial loss squarely at Little's feet and not veteran pitcher Tim Wakefield who had given up Boone's homer, there was no way back for him.
If anyone doubted the determination FSG had of finally claiming a World Series title, they had no reason at all to question it now.
The time between Boone's big blow and Little's departure was just 11 days. You might have seen that number earlier...
Speaking after the ballclub decided not to renew Little's contract, Boston's then general manager, Theo Epstein, commented: ''All I can tell you is the truth, which is quite simply that the decision was made on a body of work after careful contemplation of the big picture. It did not depend on any one decision in any one postseason game.''
And team president and chief executive, Larry Lucchino, added: ''We did assure him that this decision was not made based on a single decision in a single game."
The next period of the FSG ownership of the Red Sox was without question the most successful.
Under new manager Terry Francona, Boston famously, gloriously, claimed their first World Series crown in his first season at the helm. It was the team's first title since 1918.
A year later they made the playoffs only to lose at the first hurdle to the eventual World Series champions, the Chicago White Sox.
In 2006 the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs, but there was plenty in the bank for Francona given the successes over the previous two years and he held onto his job.
There was no doubting it was the right decision by FSG as the following autumn, the Red Sox roared to their second World Series triumph in four seasons defeating the Colorado Rockies in four straight games.
Francona led Boston all the way to the American League Championship Series in 2008 but they fell to the Tampa Bay Rays in a seventh and deciding game.
In 2009, once more Boston had an excellent year winning 56 of their 81 home games, but the Yankees were again their nemesis and they missed out on the playoffs.
The 2010 season also saw the Red Sox fall short of the post-season, and after a dramatic ending to the 2011 season where Boston lost a pivotal final game to the Baltimore Orioles while Tampa Bay were beating the Yankees, they also missed out that year too.
The loss also led to Francona deciding to call it quits - just a matter of a few hours after the defeat to the Orioles.
Speaking after his departure, Francona said: "To be honest with you, I didn't know, or I'm not sure, how much support there was from ownership. I don't know if I felt real comfortable. You have to be all-in with this job and I voiced that today. There were some things that maybe - going through things here and to make it work - it has to be everybody together and I was questioning some of that a little bit."
There was no doubt about it that for the first time in the best part of a decade, FSG were in a fix with the Red Sox.
There then came the tenure of Bobby Valentine as the ballclub's manager. His appointment was announced about a month after Francona's exit - and it was to be an utter shambles.
After years of stability and success under Francona, Valentine's reign was simply dreadful.
Boston slumped to the bottom of the American League East Division with their worst record in almost half-a-century.
Twenty-four hours after the conclusion to the 2012 regular season, FSG fired Valentine.
It was a decision greeted with universal approval across 'Red Sox Nation' as fans hoped the owners would find someone to lead them back to glory once more.
And that man was John Farrell. He took the job at Fenway Park 17 days after Valentine went.
The following October, Farrell led the Red Sox to their third World Series title in the FSG era, when an improbable late run into the playoffs culminated in a victory over the St Louis Cardinals in six games.
If truth be known, most Boston fans would say this achievement was totally unexpected but Farrell managed to galvanise the team late in the season to make the playoffs - and once there, they proved there was no-one to stop them.
Looking to defend their crown in 2014, however, the Red Sox failed - and on a massively embarrassing scale.
They plummeted back down to the foot of the American League East Division earning just two more wins than Valentine had garnered in 2012.
Alarm bells must have been ringing for FSG and the chequebooks came out over the winter as a number of players were signed to significant contracts.
Gone was the 'moneyball' concept - buying cheaply and building success via statistical analysis of players' achievements on the field (not that the team really employed this idea strictly to the letter) - and instead some major multi-million dollar deals were sanctioned by FSG.
Not least were the eye-watering contracts inked by Hanley Ramirez (four years, $88m) and Pablo Sandoval (five years, $95m), both agreed less than a month after the 2014 World Series ended.
These were two marquee signings and FSG were doubtless banking on the pair to deliver from the get-go in 2015.
Which brings us to where we are now with both Liverpool FC and the Boston Red Sox.
And it's more than an interesting time for FSG.
Rodgers's third season under the FSG ownership has been something of a rollercoaster - but for Liverpool fans, it was a ride that ultimately ended dreadfully.
The fact that the Reds reached both domestic cup semi-finals - the only club to do so - will likely count for very little when it comes to FSG. They know the bottom line is success in the Premier League and by definition qualification for the money-spinning Champions League.
An incredible and very positive 2013-14 campaign has been completely overshadowed by the one that has just ended, and with a sizeable number of Liverpool supporters demanding Rodgers to be sacked, there's no doubt FSG will have heard those calls.
Meanwhile, at Fenway Park the Red Sox have endured a very indifferent start to the season. They have losing records both at home and on the road. Already this season, the ownership decided to fire pitching coach Juan Nieves to try and turn things around in that part of the game where the numbers, to use American parlance, were ugly.
In a tightly-contested American League East Division, Boston are still well within touching distance of the early pacesetters, the Yankees, but the consensus among many fans is the team is not playing well at all. They may have the bats, but ultimately a below-average pitching staff will, more likely than not, prove to be their Achilles heel. Already some fans are questioning Farrell's leadership, despite the fact it's less than two years since the World Series was won.
It could be that the 2013 World Series triumph will ensure Farrell stays in charge - for this season at least.
But with Rodgers, it's literally an entirely different ballgame. With no silverware to fall back on, his position could be seen as shaky.
Yes, he is FSG's man, but given their track record of firing their own appointments in the past - Dalglish, Little and Valentine - it shows they will pull the proverbial trigger if they think it will benefit the team in the long run.
Francona, certainly, and Farrell to a point, have proved that course of action to be right.
Which is why the next moves made at Anfield and Fenway Park will be of great interest to millions of fans around the world.
For both Farrell and Rodgers, 2015 may well be defining years in their careers.
And for FSG as the owners of two of the biggest sports teams in the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment